Poland’s agricultural sector under pressure

Poland’s agri-food sector entered 2026 with improved production results and a record export value. However, strong production performance may not necessarily translate into higher seasonal employment. High fuel, energy and fertiliser costs, risks related to the conflict in the Middle East, and new competitive conditions following the provisional application of the EU–Mercosur agreement may prompt some farms and agri-food companies to plan investments, production volumes and workforce levels more cautiously, particularly with regard to seasonal workers.

Improved production results do not end the discussion about profitability

Data for 2025 show that, in terms of production, it was a better year for Polish agriculture than the previous one. According to the publication by Statistics Poland, “Final Estimate of the Main Agricultural and Horticultural Crops in 2025”, total cereal harvests were 6.7% higher than a year earlier, production of basic cereals, including cereal mixtures, increased by 4.8%, while the harvest of rapeseed and turnip rape rose by 11.2%.

Exports are another important factor. In its communication “Record Exports of Polish Food”, the National Support Centre for Agriculture reported that the value of agri-food goods sold abroad in 2025 was 8.6% higher than a year earlier, while the positive trade balance in agri-food products increased to EUR 19.8 billion.

However, these results have not strengthened the sense of stability in this sector of the Polish economy. In its report “Economic Conditions on Agricultural Holdings in the Second Half of 2025”, Statistics Poland indicated that the index measuring changes in the overall situation of agricultural holdings stood at -40.3, its lowest level in three years. This shows that, given high operating costs, some farms may plan cultivated areas, the scope of seasonal work and the number of people employed for harvesting, sorting or packaging more cautiously.

“Polish agriculture is showing an increasingly clear difference between production performance and profitability. Higher yields and strong exports are important, but they do not solve the problem of energy, fertiliser, labour and logistics costs, or unpredictable weather conditions. Farmers are increasingly having to deal with droughts, heavy rainfall, hail, frosts and heatwaves. This means a greater risk of losses, more difficult work planning and increased pressure on seasonal workforce organisation,” says Izabela Samulska-Ugorska, Business Development Manager at Smart Solutions HR.

Conflict in the Middle East increases cost risks for Polish agriculture

Pressure on profitability in the agri-food sector is primarily driven by the growing importance of fuel, energy, fertiliser, logistics and labour costs in production planning, workforce management and contract fulfilment. In its report “Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026”, the World Bank forecasts that global commodity prices will rise by 16% in 2026, while energy prices will increase by 24%. Brent crude oil is expected to cost an average of USD 86 per barrel, compared with USD 69 in 2025. The World Bank also indicates that fertiliser prices may rise by 31%, including a 60% increase in urea prices. These forecasts are linked, among other factors, to disruptions in energy and fertiliser markets following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, which, before the conflict, accounted for a significant share of global seaborne trade in oil and LNG.

For farms and agri-food companies, this means greater uncertainty regarding the costs of production, transport, storage, refrigeration and processing. This pressure is compounded by the sector’s workforce situation. According to Statistics Poland, in the publication “Persons Employed in the National Economy in Poland in November 2025”, dated 30 April 2026, the largest year-on-year decline in employment among the major sections of the economy was recorded in “Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing”, at 4.1%.

“Higher fuel, energy and fertiliser costs may worsen the situation of an industry that is already struggling with limited workforce availability. If margins continue to shrink, some companies may plan recruitment more cautiously, reduce investment or postpone hiring decisions. This is particularly risky in a seasonal sector, where workers must be available at a specific time. However, this scenario does not necessarily have to result in disruption. Employers that plan recruitment, the legalisation of foreign workers, accommodation, transport and seasonal budgets in advance will be better prepared for market fluctuations,” says Izabela Samulska-Ugorska, Business Development Manager at Smart Solutions HR.

In practice, some companies may make greater use of temporary employment agencies, flexible schedules and shorter employment periods aligned with the most intensive phases of the season. Adjustments may look different in the case of permanent employees. Workforce reductions are more costly and organisationally risky for companies, so hiring freezes, restrictions on creating new positions and greater selectivity in recruitment are more likely. At the same time, demand may increase for specialists who help companies reduce costs and maintain operational continuity, including professionals responsible for logistics and procurement, maintenance, operating modern machinery, food technology, cost optimisation and process automation.

The EU–Mercosur agreement places greater emphasis on non-price competitive advantages

Cost and workforce pressures are coinciding with growing competition in international trade. Since 1 May 2026, the EU–Mercosur trade agreement has been provisionally applied, which may increase the importance of non-price competitive advantages in those segments of the agri-food market where import competition and pressure on margins are particularly strong. In its communication “EU-Mercosur interim trade agreement starts to provisionally apply”, the European Commission indicates that the agreement is expected to expand export opportunities for EU producers, while EU agricultural exports to Mercosur could increase by almost 50%.

For some Polish producers, particularly those involved in beef, poultry, sugar, cereal and animal feed production, greater price competition may result in lower profitability, reduced investment and more cautious employment decisions. In the longer term, small and medium-sized farms and processing facilities operating in regions where agriculture and food processing are important sources of employment may be the most vulnerable.

“In the context of increased trade competition, the Netherlands may serve as a useful point of reference—not as a model that can simply be transferred to Polish conditions, but as an example of a sector that builds a significant part of its competitive advantage on specialisation, technology, logistics, greenhouse production, processing and the export of higher-value-added products. This is also relevant for Poland, because amid rising costs and stronger price competition, production scale alone may not be sufficient. Consistency of supply, quality, efficient logistics, better organisation of work and the ability to fulfil more demanding contracts will become increasingly important,” comments Szymon Zdanowicz, Managing Director of the Netherlands Market at Smart Solutions HR.

The example of the Netherlands shows that technological development does not eliminate the importance of workers. In segments where work must be performed within short and strictly defined periods, such as harvesting, sorting, packing, greenhouse operations or preparing products for sale, workforce availability remains essential to maintaining production continuity. According to Rabobank’s “Global Greenhouse Update 2025” report, approximately 80% of the 67,000 workers employed in Dutch greenhouse horticulture are foreign nationals.

“This is an important lesson for the Polish agricultural sector. If the industry wants to deliver seasonal operations reliably, employers should take a strategic approach to recruiting foreign workers and plan the legalisation process, transport, accommodation, onboarding and employee retention well in advance. At the same time, more predictable work legalisation procedures are needed, because in agriculture administrative delays can very quickly translate into production delays,” adds Szymon Zdanowicz.

Resilience will determine competitive advantage

Poland’s agri-food sector has strong foundations: solid production results, record exports and an important position in European supply chains. However, the coming years will test not only production itself, but the entire operating model behind it.

“Competitive advantage will be built by those who are able to protect margins, plan employment, recruit workers legally and efficiently, reduce employee turnover, implement technologies where they genuinely improve efficiency and develop team competencies. In practice, this means moving from reactive seasonal management to the advance planning of costs, labour, logistics, quality and weather-related risks,” concludes Szymon Zdanowicz.

Sources: Statistics Poland, “Final Estimate of the Main Agricultural and Horticultural Crops in 2025”, 18 December 2025; National Support Centre for Agriculture, “Record Exports of Polish Food”, 17 February 2026; Statistics Poland, “Economic Conditions on Agricultural Holdings in the Second Half of 2025”, 31 March 2026; Statistics Poland, “Persons Employed in the National Economy in Poland in November 2025”, 30 April 2026; World Bank Group, “Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026”, April 2026; European Commission, “EU-Mercosur interim trade agreement starts to provisionally apply”, 30 April 2026; “Global Greenhouse Update 2025”, 2025.