Could the Polish labor market be at risk?
The consequences of the EU-Mercosur agreement for the Polish labor market will be long-term, but they may turn out to be permanent and structural. As the expert points out, they will be most strongly felt in regions where agriculture and agri-food processing play a significant role in local employment.
– Agriculture in Poland serves a much broader function than just production – it is an important stabilizer of the labor market in rural areas and small towns. A loss of jobs in farms and processing plants means less demand for seasonal and permanent workers, a decline in demand for transport, warehousing, and service services, as well as a weakening of local labor markets, which already today are characterized by a limited number of alternative employment opportunities. In practice, this may lead to an acceleration of labor migration – both to large cities and abroad – and further depopulation of rural areas – says Izabela Samulska-Ugorska.
Potential consequences may also have a social dimension and directly affect workers – hundreds of thousands of people dependent on beef, poultry, pork, cereal, or sugar beet production may suffer. For them, it means losing their source of income, the need to retrain or migrate for work, which may not be possible for everyone. Especially vulnerable could be people with lower qualifications, working physically in agriculture and processing, for whom quick retraining opportunities are limited. In contrast to industrial or logistics sectors, which could potentially benefit from trade liberalization, the rural labor market is less flexible and has weaker access to development programs.
– On the other hand, in the long term, some of the lost jobs in agriculture could be compensated by new jobs in sectors benefiting from the agreement. The scale of these potential benefits for the labor market is uncertain and will certainly not fully offset the losses in agriculture, but it could alleviate concerns about the negative consequences. Trade liberalization may strengthen industries that are already competitive in export and less sensitive to price pressure from South American countries – says the expert.
From Poland’s perspective, potential beneficiaries include primarily the processing industry, machinery, chemical, automotive sectors, as well as logistics and transport. Opening up the Mercosur markets creates new export opportunities for manufacturers of machinery, industrial equipment, components, plant protection products, and fertilizers. Increased trade exchange also means greater demand for transport, forwarding, port, and warehousing services, which could translate into new jobs – mainly in large logistics and industrial centers.
A Light at the End of the Tunnel? Yes, but Support is Essential
The key to mitigating the potentially negative effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement on the Polish economy and labor market will be the effective use of the transition periods provided in the agreement. This is the time that should be dedicated to supporting the restructuring of agriculture, investing in higher value-added processing, and implementing real retraining programs for workers leaving the agricultural sector. An active labor market policy will also be necessary – particularly in regions with a high share of employment in agriculture – encompassing training, investment incentives, and the creation of alternative jobs outside agriculture.
– In the short term, one can expect tensions in local labor markets and increased migration pressure from rural areas to cities. In the longer term, the EU-Mercosur agreement may accelerate the structural transformation of the Polish economy – the question is whether it will happen in a controlled and socially sustainable manner. Without the right actions from the state and the use of EU support mechanisms, the risk is clear: the benefits of trade liberalization will be felt by selected sectors, while the costs will primarily be borne by workers who are most vulnerable to market changes – concludes Izabela Samulska-Ugorska.
